The ever-turning wheel that is Dynasty Fantasy Football stops for no one. In the blink of an eye, a player can go from a cornerstone asset to prime a sell candidate. In the words of the famous Kenny Rogers song, the best dynasty players “know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em.” Covered in this series is a review of a player’s 2023 campaign and a guide to navigating when it’s time to buy and time to sell on said player based on the goals of a dynasty manager heading into 2024.
Context
- Player stats and positional finishes reflect a half PPR scoring format.
- Age reflects the year the player will be at the conclusion of the 2024 Season.
- Advanced metrics are gathered from Player Profiler.
Player Bio
- 2023 Positional Finish: WR14
- 2023 Points Per Game Finish: WR14
- 2024 Age: 26
- Contract Situation: Signed through 2024 (5th year option)
A reliable cog in the machine that is the San Fransico 49ers bulldozer of an offense, Brandon Aiyuk is quietly piecing together a quality NFL career for himself in the Bay Area. Mild mannered for a WR, the talented playmaker out of Arizona State is content to let his play on the field do the talking for him. Pacing the NFC Champions in receiving, Aiyuk’s career high 1,342 yards through the air were good for 7th in the league. An impressive feat considering he finished just 36th in the league in targets and 24th in receptions.
Making the most of his opportunities, Aiyuk finished 3rd in yards per route run and 2nd yards per target. Those elite efficiency metrics helped him post a mark of 2.37 fantasy points per target, which was good for 4th in the league among WRs. While these high-end metrics are everything that fantasy managers could want out of a WR, Aiyuk has yet to post a WR1 campaign at any point during his 4-year career. A troubling stat, as only 8 players since 2017 have gone on to produce a top 12 WR finish after their 4th season in the league. So, what should you do if you’re rostering him in dynasty?
The case for keeping Aiyuk:
Here’s a basic math equation. Elite metrics + proven high end WR2 production + 26 years of age = Mel Gibson in Braveheart shouting “HOLD” at the top of his lungs. No matter what your build is in dynasty, you have room on your team for a locked in every week starter at WR who has a long runway of production ahead of him. Attached to a high scoring offense, Aiyuk may not ever finish as WR1 overall, but he’s going to give you a chance to win most weeks for the foreseeable future. Speaking of the future. Aiyuk remains under contract for just 1 more season. With the team already making long term commitments to Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey, it is very much in the realm of possibilities that Aiyuk is the odd man out following the 2024 season. A new landing spot could see him finally pair those elite metrics with a high-end target volume. If those worlds were ever to collide, you’d certainly want to have a dynasty share or two of Aiyuk laying around to reap the rewards.
The case for trading Aiyuk:
As tantalizing as it may be to get lost down the rabbit hole that is the advanced analytics world, the reality is that there is only 1 football flying around every NFL offense. While the 49ers boast one the premier units in the game, Aiyuk is not going to be among the league target leaders playing in such a crowded room of pass catchers. Could he find his way out of town some day? Yes. But the 49ers have shown a willingness to retain their free agent skill players in the past. This has been made increasingly easier with QB Brock Purdy on a 7th round rookie contract, a deal he will play on through the 2025 season. Despite being ranked as a dynasty WR1 by many industry experts, Aiyuk has yet to finish as a top 12 scoring WR in half or full PPR formats. If you can capitalize big time on moving a player widely considered to be a dynasty WR1, that path is at least worth exploring.
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