The ever-turning wheel that is Dynasty Fantasy Football stops for no one. In the blink of an eye, a player can go from a cornerstone asset to prime a sell candidate. In the words of the famous Kenny Rogers song, the best dynasty players “know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em.” Covered in this series is a review of a player’s 2023 campaign and a guide to navigating when it’s time to buy and time to sell on said player based on the goals of a dynasty manager heading into 2024.
Context
- Player stats and positional finishes reflect a half PPR scoring format.
- Age reflects the year the player will be at the conclusion of the 2024 Season.
- Advanced metrics are gathered from Player Profiler.
Player Bio
- 2023 Positional Finish: RB36
- 2023 Points Per Game Finish: RB30
- 2024 Age: 26
- Career touch total: 620
- Contract Situation: Entering the final year of his rookie contract.
As a 32-year-old lifelong Patriots fan I had the misfortune of watching the first unmitigated disaster of a football season in my conscious memory. Long gone are the days of unprecedented success that routinely resulted in championship parades down the snow-covered streets of Boston. Crashing and burning alongside the remnants of the Patriots’ Dynasty was the fantasy value of every player on the offensive side of the ball. The first New England player selected off nearly every draft board in 2023, no Patriot fell shorter of expectations a season ago than Rhamondre Stevenson. Finishing 46th in the league with an even 4 yards per carry, Stevenson struggled to move the ball on the ground compared to his first 2 NFL campaigns that saw him exceed 4.5 YPC. A lack of home run plays also contributed to his lack of production, as his 1.9% breakaway run rate ranked 50th in the NFL. Additionally, his 3.15 yards created per touch (38th among RBs) left Stevenson managers regularly wanting more out of the former Razorback.
A poor statistical season to be sure, but there were factors at work last season that were beyond Stevenson’s control. For starters, a high ankle sprain in week 13 ended his season early. As far as the team was concerned, calling the Patriot’s offense was a trainwreck would be an insult to every trainwreck throughout history. In fact, New England’s 13.9 points per game were the lowest in the league since 2012. The team’s passing game produced a 5th worst 180.5 yards per game through the air and did very little to keep defenses honest. While Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe will shoulder most of the blame for those “results” the Patriots’ receiver room was among the least talented in the league. Toss a slightly below average offensive line (20th per Pro Football Focus) into the mix and your recipe for offensive ineptitude is complete.
Looking ahead to 2024, the team has moved on from Bill Belichick in favor of first-time head coach and former Patriots’ Linebacker, Jerod Mayo. With Offensive Coordinator Bill O’Brien transitioning back to the college ranks, former Browns’ OC Alex Van Pelt will be at the reins of New England’s offense going forward. In his 4 years in Cleveland the Browns’ running game flourished, as the team finished in the top 10 in yards per carry in 3 of those 4 campaigns. For fantasy purposes, the duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt compiled 4 top 10 RB finishes between 2020 and 2022. Following Chubb’s season ending injury, Jerome Ford took over the lead role in the Browns’ backfield and posted a respectable RB17 finish in 2023. As the only notable RB on the roster, Stevenson looks like a bell cow for the moment, but it is likely that the Patriots will bring in reinforcements to fill out the depth chart. Exactly how high-profile those running backs prove to be is to be determined, but given the level of help the roster needs, it is likely that upgrading significantly at RB will not be top priority this Spring.
Despite the nightmare season in New England, Stevenson remains the team’s top offensive weapon. Holding the number 3 pick in this year’s draft, the Patriots will likely begin their rebuild around one of the top QB prospects on the board. What better way to help a young player acclimate to the pro level than to build an offense around the run game? As for Stevenson himself, he possesses a dual-threat skillset that has seen him record 107 receptions in his last 29 games. Walking into his age 26 season, he has not shouldered an immense workload thus far. With just 620 career touches on his frame, he has plenty left in the tank going forward. With an RB1 season on his resume, very few miles on the odometer and little competition for touches (for now) Stevenson is a player you want to hold if you’re currently rostering him and a buy low candidate if you’re a contender in need of RB depth in 2024. Let’s conclude with what you should be paying for him if you’re trying to buy right now.
Price Point:
Option 1 - An early 2nd round pick (2.01 – 2.04)
The 2024 draft class is shaping up to be a strong one in super flex formats, but pinpointing reliable running back production remains a murky exercise at best. If you’re a contender that needs a RB you can start with confidence right out of the gate, Stevenson projects to be a better bet than anyone you’ll be able to grab in this range of a rookie draft.
Option 2 – Multiple future 2nd round rookie picks.
Remember, you’re only acquiring Rhamondre if you genuinely believe you’re in it to win it all in 2024. So shipping out what will hopefully be multiple late 2nd round selections is an ideal buy point if you’re able to pull it off.
Option 3 – A player for player swap
Look to shift away from an aging WR or TE if you’re deep at the position and in need of RB help. On paper, Stevenson turns 26 before the 2024 season, but has only logged 620 career touches, so there is plenty of tread left on those tires.
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