Dynasty Decision Time: Saquon Barkley

The ever-turning wheel that is Dynasty Fantasy Football stops for no one. In the blink of an eye, a player can go from a cornerstone asset to prime a sell candidate. In the words of the famous Kenny Rogers song, the best dynasty players “know when to hold ‘em" and "know when to fold ‘em.” Covered in this series is a review of a player’s 2023 campaign and a guide to navigating when it’s time to buy and time to sell on said player based on the goals of a dynasty manager heading into 2024.

Context

• Player stats and positional finishes reflect a half PPR scoring format.
• Age reflects the year the player will be at the conclusion of the 2024 Season.
• Advanced metrics are gathered from Player Profiler.

Player Bio

• 2023 Positional Finish: RB12
• 2023 Points Per Game Finish: RB9
• 2024 Age: 27
• Career Touches: 1,489
• Contract Situation: Pending Unrestricted Free Agent

Hop in your time machine and set the dial to the Spring of 2018. Now jump on Google and search “Dynasty Rookie Class” and let me know how much content comes up that doesn’t have the words “generational prospect” and “Saquon Barkley” in the same sentence. Spoiler alert, you won’t find much. Fast forward 6 years and we see that Saquon has posted 4 RB1 finishes with 2 injury plagued campaigns sprinkled in as well. One could argue that Barkley hasn’t quite lived up to the deafening hype, but all things considered, he’s been a rock-solid fantasy producer when he’s lined up for Big Blue throughout his career.

The Giants entered 2023 with playoff aspirations, but ultimately ended up far short of expectations, riding a QB carousel to a 6-11 finish. Barkley, however, was the lone bright spot in an offense that finished 30^th in the league in points per game. Finishing 3^rd in the league with a 34.8% dominator rating, Barkley accounted for a large portion of the team’s yards and TDs in 2023. More than just a straight-line runner, Barkley remained active in the receiving game as well. While his 7 drops (2^nd most in the league among RBs) proved to be frustrating for managers, he made up for it with volume. His 4.3 targets per game were tied for 8^th and his 4 receiving TDs were tied for 3^rd at his position. When the team needed a big play, who did they look for? Barkley, of course. His 12 breakaway runs ranked 8^th in the NFL and his 4.9% breakaway run rate was good for 15^th among RBs. Impressive metrics considering Barkley was operating behind Pro Football Focus’ 30^th ranked offensive line.

Finishing RB9 in points per game is certainly nothing to sneeze at, but where does Barkley fit into the dynasty landscape entering 2024? No longer the new kid on the block, he enters his age 27 season at a time where the dynasty community is fading aging RBs like there’s no tomorrow. There is no shortage of data out there indicating that RBs fade in production (and therefore trade value) when they enter their late 20s. With 1,489 total touches on this frame, Barkley isn’t being shipped off to a retirement home in South Florida just yet, but the end of his production peak is likely upon us, if not already in the rearview mirror. Further complicating matters is the looming question mark of where Saquon will be playing this Fall. A drawn-out contract standoff throughout the 2023 off-season ended in Barkley playing on the franchise tag. Barring the team using the tag on him for a 2^nd consecutive year, he will enter 2024 as an unrestricted free agent. Given the state the Giants find themselves in, a change of scenery would likely be a welcomed sight for Barkley’s fantasy outlook. For managers, the prudent move is to hold out and play the wait and see game before buying or selling dynasty shares of Barkley, but with 8 months between us and the start of the 2024 fantasy football season let’s talk about what to do with Barkley in dynasty based on what we know now.

The case for keeping Barkley:

Entering his 7^th NFL season, Barkley should only be landing on rosters that have realistic aspirations of taking home a dynasty championship in 2024. As a contenting manager, finding reliable RB production can be a fickle exercise at best. Between injuries, unpredictable game scripts and the committee approach that seemingly becomes more and more popular each year, it can be difficult to pin down which backs give managers the best chance to win. In dynasty, the challenge facing managers this off-season is even more daunting than in years past. While hype around RB prospects will grow as we get into draft season, this class is lacking in identifiable year 1 RB producers.  While getting swept up in draft hype is fun in April and May, it can be your undoing in September and October if you rely on it to score fantasy points for you right out of the gate. This will force RB needy managers to bank on veterans to pick up the slack in the scoring department.  The 2024 off-season is setting up to be an interesting one where the trend of fading aging RBs collides with a shortage of draftable producers and managers hanging on to veterans like Barkley could see stronger offers than they would have in past off-seasons.

• Contenders should be buying for a late 1^st if possible.

The case for trading Barkley:

Say what you will about the 2024 rookie crop of backs, no one, and I mean NO ONE wants to catch the falling knife that is the aging RB in a dynasty league. If you’re hitting the reset button, are a contending team that is deep at RB or needy at another position, this is the off-season to move away from a high-profile name like Saquon Barkley. Despite his ideal fit being attached to a contending dynasty roster, this may be the ideal time to tier down from Barkley and pivot to a younger RB while possibly collecting additional assets in return. As discussed in pervious articles, one of my favorite buys this off-season is Rhamondre Stevenson. With just 620 career touches on his frame, an RB1 finish on his resume, and coming off an injury shortened season on a team what as an offensive disaster in 2023, it’s worth kicking the tires to see if you can pry him lose. Given the relative certainty to produce in 2024 that Barkley provides, it’s conceivable that you may even be able to get a 2^nd round rookie draft pick in return with Stevenson if you’re shipping Saquon out the door.

• Rebuilding teams should be aiming for a mid 1^st round pick in return.
• Contenders should be trying to buy a younger RB or pivoting to another position.

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