The ever-turning wheel that is Dynasty Fantasy Football stops for no one. In the blink of an eye, a player can go from a cornerstone asset to prime a sell candidate. In the words of the famous Kenny Rogers song, the best dynasty players know "when to hold ‘em" and know "when to fold ‘em." Covered in this series is a review of a player’s 2023 campaign and a guide to navigating when it’s time to buy and time to sell said player based on the goals of a dynasty manager heading into 2024.
Context
- Player stats and positional finishes reflect a half PPR scoring format.
- Age reflects the year the player will be at the conclusion of the 2024 Season.
- Advanced metrics are gathered from Player Profiler
Player Bio
- 2023 Positional Finish: RB27
- 2023 Points Per Game Finish: RB18
- 2024 Age: 26
- Career Touches: 1,502
- Contract Situation: Pending Unrestricted Free Agent
The first Running Back selected during the 2019 Draft has already logged half a decade’s worth of service time at the NFL level. Oh, where does the time go? The 2022 Rushing Champ hits free agency coming off a rocky 2023 season that saw the Alabama product sit out training camp in a contract dispute, start the season slow as a result, miss time with a Quad injury and play under multiple offensive coordinators following a regime change in Las Vegas. How’s that for a trip to Sin City? Despite the nagging injuries and challenging circumstances, the Raiders were content to give Jacobs the rock when he was on the field. The talented back finished RB1 in opportunity share and RB10 in weighted opportunities (which puts an emphasis on targets in the pass catching game) on a per game basis. In addition, his 13.4% target share was good for 10th in the league among RBs and his yards per route run were good for RB9 on the season. His efficiency metrics, however, left much to be desired in 2023. His 3.5 yards per carry and RB48 in yards created per touch finish were certainly nothing to write home about. Ranking 47th among RBs with a 2.1% breakaway run rate, chunk plays were also few and far between for Jacobs on the ground.
Why was 2023 such a grind compared to such a fruitful 2022 campaign? A phrase uttered all too often regarding the franchise over the past 2 decades, the Raiders were a mess. While Interim Head Coach Antonio Pierce appears to be gathering momentum to shed the caretaker label heading into 2024, what exactly this offense will look like next Fall is anyone’s guess. Wrapped up in the silver and black chaos is what the future holds for the productive RB. Barring the team placing the franchise tag on him for the second consecutive year, Jacobs appears to be in line to hit unrestricted free agency for the first time in his career. With his landing spot uncertain, let’s focus on what we know about Jacobs to this point in his career and where he fits into the dynasty landscape at this stage.
Conventional dynasty wisdom would tell you to start to at least think about moving on from RBs somewhere around the age of 26, as after this point the wheels can fall off quickly and their value can plumet at the drop of a hat. Of course, that is not the case for every back out there. 27-year-old Christian McCaffrey and 28-year-old Alvin Kamara say hello. Could Jacobs fall into this mold and latch on to fantasy viability for a few more seasons? Absolutely. So, what should you do with him if you’re rostering him in a dynasty league? That, like most questions in dynasty formats, depends entirely on your situation and the league you play in. In fact, with Jacobs entering free agency, the prudent thing to do is to hold and see where he lands this Spring. But where’s the fun in that answer? With 9 months between this point in time and the kickoff to the 2024 season, let’s talk player values based on what we know now.
What to do with Jacobs if you’re rostering him now?
This depends entirely on your team’s short- and long-term goals. If you’re in it to win it all in 2024 you’re likely holding on and riding Jacobs in a hopes of squeezing every drop of production you can out of him over the next year or two. The only type of move I’d consider making on this player in a win-now build would be to attempt to buy back years of production. One of my favorite off-season targets is Rhamondre Stevenson. While Stevenson and Jacobs are the same age, the workload that each player has taken on at the NFL level could not be any different. With 1,502 career touches on his frame, Jacobs has touched the ball at the 2nd highest rate in the game since entering the league in 2019, finishing only behind Derrick Henry in total touches over that time frame. Stevenson on the other hand has handled just 620 touches and has an RB1 season on his resume.
What would you pay for Jacobs now?
Again, at this stage of the game, Jacobs should only be appealing to teams with realistic aspirations of contending in 2024. If your team fits that mold and needs help at RB the ideal buying point would be sending multiple 2nd round picks out the door in exchange for the Raiders’ workhorse. During your league’s draft, this type of offer may be enough to close a deal, but a reasonable counteroffer that could be expected is a late 2024 1st round pick. If this is what it takes to close the deal that delivers what you believe to be the final piece of a championship puzzle, then pull the trigger. While I do not make it a habit of moving 1st rounders for aging RBs, the class that will be on the board this Spring has to be taken into consideration. As we stand today, the 2024 crop offers much in the form of QBs and WRs, but simply does not boast the reliable RB production we’ve seen in past years. This will leave Running Back needy managers exploring the veteran pool of players to make ends meet. Spend a late 2024 1st if you must but hang on to your 2025 1st in case your upcoming season does not pan out as you expect it will.
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