In the business world a hostile takeover entails one company taking over another company without the approval of the company being acquired. This is achieved through the acquiring company purchasing enough equity in the firm being acquired to achieve a controlling interest. Fortunately, dynasty managers typically don’t have control over the teams they manage swept out from under them at the drop of a hat. But in the constantly shifting landscape that is dynasty, player values can fluctuate at an alarming rate in the span of just a few short months. In 2023, no player saw their dynasty value increase in the way we’ve seen Puka Nacua skyrocket up the WR ranks. As far as high-profile takeovers go, Puka’s unforeseen ascension into the coveted top 12 dynasty receiver range rivals InBev’s $52 billion 2008 acquisition of Anheuser-Bush.
Speaking of beer, if you were savvy enough to acquire shares of Puka in the off-season or buy low in September, you’ve no doubt been cracking brews in celebration ever since. For those who missed out on the initial buy for nothing window, or sold far too low early in the season, you’ve likely been popping those bottles in search of an outlet to drown your sorrows. By now it’s no secret that Nacua’s historic 2023 campaign saw him break rookie WR records for receptions (105) receiving yards (1,486) as well as single game playoff receiving yards (181). Nacua parlayed that statistical output into a WR4 overall finish and WR6 finish on a per game basis in PPR scoring formats. A dive into his deeper metrics (per Player Profiler) shows him finishing 5th in yards after catch and 6th in yards per route run. His 159 total targets ranked 7th and his 28.7% target share was good for 11th in the NFL in 2023. Great on so many levels, there are opportunities for improvement going forward. His 44.8% contested catch rate ranked just 38th and his 1.88 fantasy points per target were good for 35th in the league. Any way you slice it, Puka’s excellence was on full display this season and in a matter of months he’s gone from late 5th round NFL selection to a scorching hot fantasy WR commodity. If you are among those fortunate enough to have a Puka share or two, let’s discuss what you should be doing if you're rostering him in a dynasty league.
The case to keep Puka:
Did you read anything I just wrote? The man is a 22-year-old rookie coming off a top 5 scoring season and is attached to a QB who tossed the rock to Calvin Johnson and Cooper Kupp in years that went down as number 1 and 2 in NFL history in single season receiving yardage. At 35 years of age, Stafford may not be young anymore, but he continues to play at a high level as Pro Football Focus’ QB5 overall grade would indicate, and the signal caller remains under team control through 2026. But Back to Kupp for a moment. The Rams perennial target leader enters his age 31 season on the heels of back-to-back injury plagued campaigns, missing 13 games in total between 2022 and 2023. While Kupp is going to stick around for another year or 2, a case could be made that Nacua has already usurped him as the team’s top wideout. Puka led the team in total targets and out targeted Kupp on a targets per game basis by a margin on 9.4 to 7.9. An examination of the games where the 2 players shared the field shows Puka out targeting Kupp 8.5 to 7. Given the ages and health of these 2 players it’s fair to wonder if Puka is on the rise while Kupp is on the decline. Between his age, ability to command targets and QB certainty for the next few seasons, there is no reason to trade Nacua in any dynasty build outside of a massive overpay coming your way.
The case to trade Puka:
The 2023 production we saw from Nacua was undeniably great. But as players rise up positional and overall rankings their trade value goes up as well. Jump on any social media platform following Super Wild Card Weekend and see how much dynasty talk that comes up that doesn’t involve Puka Nacua. Many high-profile industry experts are ranking him among their top 6 dynasty WRs, meaning that the haul you may be able to get in return may be too good to pass up. This could be especially true if you’re not a long-term believer in the player. Those that put a high degree of stock in a player’s draft capital or combine results were unimpressed by his 5th round selection and poor athleticism scores and may view his 2023 stats as a product of the McVay system and Stafford’s willingness to lock in on his top target. While even the loudest naysayers would agree that Puka has outperformed the 5th round capital and athleticism concerns, the question as to whether he can replicate such a high level of production going forward remains to be seen. Even if you believe in the player, for dynasty mangers that need more than just a WR, moving Puka now for some combination of multiple 1st round picks or multiple young players could help fill out a roster with many holes.
Where does the Sunday Surefire Team have Puka ranked among dynasty WRs?
The Commish – WR6
Aaron “Downtown” Brown – WR8
Ethan Weaver – WR10
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